India vs New Zealand: Who Has A Better Chance Of Winning The WTC Final?

Cricket Image for India vs New Zealand: Who Has A Better Chance Of Winning The WTC Final? (Image Source: AFP)

India and New Zealand are set to play the World Test Championship(WTC) Final on 18th June at Ageas Bowl, Southampton. They reached the final being the top two teams among the nine that participated. 

Reaching the top spot means the WTC Final won't be a one-sided affair that's for sure, but who has the better chance of clinching the trophy? 

1) Pace Bowling 

England is a country that assists the seam bowlers well. Both India and New Zealand have a brilliant group of pacers that have consistently done well. Indian fast bowlers in the last five years have picked up 494 wickets in 55 matches at an average of 24.6 and a strike rate of 49.4. The Kiwi seamers, in the same period, have taken 525 wickets at an average of 26.20 and a strike rate of 55.40. 

Considering only Australia, England, and South Africa as venues in the last five years, the Indian bowlers have taken 286 wickets in 32 matches at an average of 26.9 and a strike rate of 54.5. New Zealand has played 12 matches in this period on these venues where their pacers have taken 155 wickets at a strike rate of 64.5 and an average of 30.61. 

If you look closely then you will note that Indian fast bowlers have done slightly better as a unit taking wickets quicker rate while giving away fewer runs than Kiwi pacers. 

2) Batting Mainstays

There will be tough conditions to bat which means that the batters will need to trust their defenses and score strategically. Both India and New Zealand have been batting powerhouses and have some star batters in the lineup. 

Indian batting(1-7) in the last five years average 42.74 in 55 matches they have played. One batter averages 79.79 balls before getting out. At the same time, Kiwi batters, in 38 matches, have almost the same average of 42.03 runs and 80.98 balls per dismissal. 

In venues like Australia, England, and South Africa, the Indian batters have averaged 37.28 runs and 73.2 balls per dismissal while New Zealand batters score 31.81 runs and get dismissed every 70.5 balls. 

The batting is almost identical for both teams in terms of both scoring runs and surviving at the wicket. 

3) Lower-order batting

The lower-order contribution sometimes becomes crucial during a test match. In the last five years, the Indian batters coming at the position of eight or lower average 18.21 runs and get dismissed every 33.80 balls. New Zealand's lower order, in the same period, averages 19.21 runs and 34.09 balls per dismissal. 

In the before-mentioned specific venues, the Indian lower order averages 16.33 runs and 33.18 balls per dismissal while Kiwi tail has done slightly better with 19.45 runs and 37 balls per dismissal. 

Considering these three elements, it can be noted that both teams have been similar in the way they have performed and gone about things in the last few years. It is indeed a tough task to differentiate between the two sides but given how bowlers have a more role to play in how a test match panes out, then there is a chance India might end up lifting the trophy.