Will India Continue To Apply The Five Bowler Theory?

Check out India's probable playing XI of the first test vs South Africa in Centurion.

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Ever since Virat Kohli has become the captain of the test team, one significant tactical change India has done is to play five bowlers in away tests, especially SENA. The five-bowler theory is that to win a test match, a side needs to have five quality bowlers who can pick 20 wickets. A test match can only be won when a team picks 20 wickets. 

India has been applying this theory since 2016. However, they first got to apply it in SENA when they toured South Africa in 2017-18. They risked their batting to excel in the bowling department. India's excellence in bowling was on par as they managed to get all 60 wickets in three Tests in South Africa but the risk of batting cost them two games. 

But the template was set since India always remained in the game with five bowlers and they managed to win in Australia twice and are currently leading in England 2-1. 

Once again, India have landed in South Africa for a three-match series. In this time, Indian pacers and the bowling department have gained some massive experience and are looking good enough to challenge the South African side. 

The first match is in Centurion where the conditions favor pacers. A pacer averages 27.84 and a spinner - 50.57. India is most likely to continue with the set template which has given them so much success. 

The question is if India plays five pacers or four pacers a spinner. In the 2018 tour, India played three specialist pacers and a fast-bowling all-rounder. They changed the fifth bowler as per the conditions. 

In Johannesburg, India played all five seamers while in Centurion and Cape Town, they played four-seamers and R Ashwin. 

The weather in Centurion - the venue for the first test match - is forecasted to be overcast with many rain interruptions. There is a good chance India might go in with five pacers.

But leaving Ashwin out will be a hard call to take considering how well he has been bowling and with no Ravindra Jadeja, his batting too will be handy. A 4+1 strategy won't be a bad option for India. 

Leaving a spinner out or playing one will all depend on how the team reads conditions. There is no perfect combination. It's a gamble that a team takes in every game they play. If it comes out right then a captain will be deemed genius, if it doesn't, then severe criticism will take place. 

India Probable Playing XI - KL Rahul, Mayank Agarwal, Cheteshwar Pujara, Virat Kohli, Ajinkya Rahane/Hanuma Vihari, Rishabh Pant, Shardul Thakur, R Ashwin/Ishant Sharma, Jasprit Bumrah, Mohammad Shami, Mohammad Siraj