Pakistan vs England 1st Test Preview: Struggling Hosts Eye a Comeback

England tour of Pakistan 2024 (Image Source: Google)

Pakistan will host England for the first Test of their three-match series in Multan on October 7, a fixture many are looking for, given the contrasting forms of the two sides. For Pakistan, this series represents a chance to break their dreadful streak in the longest format of the game, having endured a winless run of 10 Tests at home. England, buoyed by the success of their Bazball approach, looks to assert further dominance after thewir 3-0 series win in Pakistan last year.

As always, the subcontinental conditions will be a significant factor, but the psychological edge might favor England, considering their attacking brand of cricket and Pakistan's recent form struggles.

Pakistan's Form Woes: Winless Streak Haunts the Hosts

Pakistan has been in dismal form in Test cricket, especially at home, where its proud record has crumbled over the past two years. A shocking 21% of all its Test defeats have come during this period, with six of its 28 home losses occurring since 2022. Currently on a 10-match winless streak at home, Pakistan is perilously close to equalling its worst-ever run, a stretch of 11 matches without a win between 1969 and 1975. The home advantage that once made Pakistan a fortress has seemingly vanished.

With Pakistan's form continuing to dip, betting fans are heavily backing England to clinch the series once again. The odds are stacked against the hosts, and England's recent 3-0 victory in Pakistan last year only strengthens the visitors' chances this time. Fans looking to bet on England’s continued dominance can use the Parimatch promotional code to claim a welcome bonus as they place their bets.

Pakistan’s 2-0 home series defeat to Bangladesh earlier this month has further intensified the pressure on Shan Masood's leadership. Despite mounting criticism, the left-hander has been retained as captain, but the upcoming series against England may well decide his future in the role.

Squad Changes: Injuries and Returns

Pakistan's squad for the first Test has seen some notable changes, with left-arm spinner Noman Ali making a return after being omitted from the Bangladesh series. Noman will be key alongside mystery spinner Abrar Ahmed as Pakistan look to exploit the spin-friendly conditions of Multan. 

Khurram Shahzad, who had impressed with a six-wicket haul in Bangladesh, misses out due to a side injury that he picked up in the second Test of that series. Although it was initially hoped that Shahzad would be fit for the England series, he hasn't fully recovered, leaving Pakistan without one of their leading bowlers.

On the positive side, all-rounder Aamer Jamal, who impressed during Pakistan's tour of Australia in 2023-24, is back in the fold after recovering from a back injury. His absence from the Bangladesh series was felt, and Pakistan will be hoping that Jamal, with his pace and ability to bat in the lower order, can make an impact. 

England's Dominance: The Bazball Effect

England comes into the series riding a wave of success, having revolutionized their Test cricket under the leadership of Brendon McCullum and Ben Stokes. Their aggressive "Bazball" philosophy has seen them win 13 of their last 15 Test matches, including a historic 3-0 sweep in Pakistan last year. The attacking mindset has reinvigorated English cricket, and it's hard to see them deviating from this approach in Multan.

In terms of head-to-head records, Pakistan holds a slight edge over England with 29 wins to England's 21 from 89 Tests. However, recent encounters have been heavily in favor of the visitors. Over the last seven Tests between the two sides, England has won five, with two draws. Their last tour of Pakistan ended in an emphatic 3-0 series victory, and they’ll be looking to repeat that feat starting in Multan.

Final Prediction

Given Pakistan's recent struggles and England's confidence, the visitors will start as favorites for the first Test. Pakistan's batting lineup has been inconsistent, and their bowlers, especially in the pace department, have lacked the sharpness needed to trouble top-tier opposition. However, the return of Aamer Jamal and the presence of two quality spinners in Noman and Abrar give the hosts a fighting chance, especially if they can make early inroads into England's aggressive batting.

If Pakistan can post a competitive first-innings total and put England under pressure, they might just find a way to turn around their fortunes at home. However, England’s confidence and adaptability, honed under Stokes and McCullum, make them the clear favorites to take a 1-0 lead in Multan.